01 April 2018

Sunday Check-in: GA GOP Gubernatorial Debate Analysis

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1 April 2018

Last night in Flowery Branch, GA, all seven of the qualified candidates for the GOP Primary for Governor of the Great State of Georgia met up to debate the issues in front of a packed & enthusiastic crowd in an event that was put on by the 9th Congressional District Republican Party. 

While a common theme from most of the candidates was the importance of religious freedom, it didn't take long for several of the candidates to start calling out presumed front runner, Lt. Governor Casey Cagle.
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 There seemed to be a clear delineation of roles & personalities on the stage, almost as though it was a scripted event. Cagle - the even-keel front runner; Current SOS Brian Kemp - the folksy, populist "man of the people"; Hunter Hill - the tough, pragmatic military-man conservative; Clay Tippins - the outside-the-box & more philosophical, libertarian-leaning political thinker; and Michael Williams - the Trumpian firebrand. 
Cagle with the thousand yard stare


A straw poll that was done basically confirms what several politicos have said & is not unlike what this publication wrote about last week.

Straw Poll results from the GA GOP Governor's Debate 

The basic breakdown: Cagle - 41%; Kemp - 22%; Tippins - 15%; Hill - 12%; Williams - 9%.

 There certainly seems to be a clear pecking order here. It seems as if it's Cagle's race to lose, though he's almost guaranteed to be facing a run-off challenger. But who will that candidate be? The smart money would seem to be on Kemp, though a poll that came out a couple of weeks ago had Hunter Hill in the number two spot. As previously mentioned, Hill does have a strong campaign structure, but then again - so does Kemp. And now we see that dark horse Clay Tippins is not looking like such an outside shot anymore. Make no mistake here, friends, his 15% showing is probably the biggest win any of the the candidates got last night. 

 And now I'm going to tie in some analysis I did this past week. How do the five legitimate gubernatorial candidates stack up in terms of their Facebook preference?
  1. Casey Cagle: approx. 169,000 likes
  2. Hunter Hill: approx. 66,000 likes 
  3. Brian Kemp: approx. 47,000 likes
  4. Michael Williams: approx. 22,000 likes
  5. Clay Tippins: approx. 7,000 likes 

Just like the old saying in politics about yard signs, it is true that Facebook likes don't necessarily equate to votes, but just like with yard signs - they sure as hell don't hurt, either!

Regardless, these last 52 days of the campaign promise to be exciting. Stay tuned for more on this race in the weeks to follow.

As always, thanks for reading. 

Your Pal,

MB McCart

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